Second Wave?

An interview with Dr. Greg Rose, Chair, Infection Prevention Control Committee

“From the Epidemiology point of view, in Ontario we are well past our first wave. We had a bit of a dip in case numbers to the early part of May and started to get worse for about two weeks ago. The increase in case numbers is probably related to people visiting family during the Mother’s Day weekend. I think we’re going to see that kind of pattern; case numbers creep up for a period and they drop back down as people do different things with their time other than home isolation.”

As there has increasingly been talk about a second wave of COVID-19, Dr. Rose explained what that means, and how it might impact loosening of social distancing restrictions.

Social distancing impacting second wave

“The concept behind the second wave is that the current social distancing measures will be unsustainable in the long term and we may lose the ability to maintain them. The current modeling here in Ottawa is that if we reduce the efficacy of social distancing by 20% from the current level, then we will start to see cases adding up. If you take that model, the numbers start to increase again over the course of July and then leading to a peak in early September.”

Possible repeat to lockdown

“We would most likely see something similar to the last few weeks, where the numbers climbed up a little bit because of the Mother’s Day weekend, then dropped off again the week after as people went back into social isolation. Depending on the extent of changes made, we could see a much higher peak. However, I think you would see public health orders coming in place to lock down again. I don’t believe we are going to see a massive second wave akin to what was seen with the Spanish Influenza, because I just don’t think we would permit it to happen from the public health level.”

Cautious return to normal

“The current model is meant as a concept of what would happen when we back away from our current policies. I personally hope we don’t throw the gates wide open, but I do think that we are going need to establish some degree of normalcy. What I would personally like to see happen is very small, incremental changes be made and then we wait two to three weeks to see if that changed anything. The problem is when you have social movements like the large gatherings at Trinity Bellwood Park in Toronto a few weeks ago, where we lose control over what the public is actually doing then those become very hard to predict.”

Dr. Rose

“I don’t like to let an opportunity pass to say some heartfelt thanks to the staff of the Queensway Carleton for the hard work, dedication to purpose, and the innovative and caring response they had to the pandemic. It continues to impress me, and it continues to inspire me.”